Appendix 1. Financial statement

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Figure 41: Kernel`s IFRS Financial, USD thousands

BALANCE SHEET

FY2011

FY2012

FY2013E

FY2014F

FY2015F

FY2016F

FY2017F

FY2018F

ASSETS

Cash & equivalents

115,897

82,529

128,042

197,673

348,686

558,632

810,089

1 065 315

Trade accounts receivable, net

111,586

146,362

160,618

190,707

208,166

227,889

236,772

246 775

Prepayments to suppliers & other current assets, net

81,334

90,335

112,634

131,997

143,233

155,926

161,642

168 079

Taxes recoverable & prepaid, net

221,274

238,294

238 294

Inventories

183,668

410,182

414,130

493,849

540,586

593,770

617,849

645 052

Biological assets

95,961

153,338

160,068

185,787

204,480

217,871

227,378

234 087

Total current assets

809,720

1,121,040

1,213,786

1,438,307

1,683,444

1,992,383

2,292,023

2,597,602

PP&E, net

502,752

728,371

858,102

930,303

1,001,015

1,039,483

1,079,256

1 120 632

Intangible assets, net

65,563

91,087

106,858

117,854

125,519

130,863

134,589

137 186

Goodwill

85,989

137,227

137 227

Deffered tax assets

10,723

21,502

21 502

Other non-current assets

97,862

19,805

19 805

Total non-current assets

762 889

997,992

1,143,495

1,226,691

1,305,068

1,348,880

1,392,379

1,436,352

TOTAL ASSETS

1,572,609

2,119,032

2,357,280

2,664,998

2,988,512

3,341,263

3,684,402

4,033,954

LIABILITIES

Trade accounts payables

27,055

25,490

31,750

37,720

41,185

45,098

46,861

48 845

Advances from customers and other current liabilities

102,029

157,338

172,272

204,633

223,410

244,622

254,176

264 934

Short-term borrowings

234,514

167,348

296,298

333,938

376,033

421,810

468,174

515,234

Current portion of long-term borrowings

31,392

98,622

Total current liabilities

394 990

448,798

500,320

576,291

640,628

711,531

769,211

829,014

Long-term borrowings

152,684

414,238

462,912

523,320

590,880

664,349

738,759

814,287

Obligation under finance lease

3,373

12,622

Deferred tax liability

24,119

26,356

Other non-current liabilities

153

6,317

Total non-current liabilities

180,329

459,533

508,207

568,615

636,175

709,644

784,054

859,582

SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY

Share capital

1,945

2,104

Share premium reserve

321,556

463,879

Subscrived capital

137,354

Additional paid-in capital

39,944

Equity‑settled employee benefits reserve

1,211

Revaluation reserve

15,049

Translation reserve

-162,152

-167,082

Retained earnings

617,878

824,578

962,631

1,133,968

1,325,587

1,533,965

1,745,014

1,959,235

Shareholders' equity

971,574

1,179,683

1,317,736

1,489,073

1,680,692

1,889,070

2,100,119

2,314,340

Minority interest

25,716

31,018

Total shareholders' equity

997,290

1,210,701

1348754

1,520,091

1,711,710

1,920,088

2,131,137

2,345,358

TOTAL LIABILITIES & EQUITY

1,572,609

2,119,032

2357280

2,664,998

2,988,512

3,341,263

3,684,402

4,033,954

INCOME STATEMENT

		FY2011		FY2012	FY2013E		FY2014F		FY2015F		FY2016F		FY2017F		FY2018F
Revenue		1,899,118		2,157,441	2,535,981	2,982,421		3,241,458		3,534093		3,665,888		3,814,298
Cost of sales		-1,439,591		-1,696,468	-2,021,760	-2,370,410		-2,571,595		-2,804,815		-2,909,134		-3,026,322
Gross profit		459,527		460,973	514,222	612,011		669,863		729,278		756,754		787,975
Other operating income		26,192		65,993	73,059	83,900		91,712		97,277		101,212		103,983
*Operating expenses:*
	Distribution,costs	-170,281		-200,368	-243,044		-283,454		-306,900		-333,388		-345,317		-358,751
	General,&administrative,expenses		-38,170	-70,128	-73,634		-77,316		-81,182		-85,241		-89,503		-93,978
*Total operating expenses*		*-208,451*		*-270,496*	*-316,679*		*-360,770*		*-388,082*		*-418,629*		*-434,821*		*-452,729*
Operating profit		277,268		256,470	270,602		335,141		373,493		407,925		423,146		439,229
	Finance,costs	-42,452		-64,361	-73,384		-90,374		-99,752		-110,241		-121,647		-133,199
	Foreign,exchange,gain,,net	1,723		5,269	-		-		-		-		-		-
	Other,expenses/income,,net	-28,121		-3,486	-		-		-		-		-		-
Profit before income tax		208,418		193,892	197,218		244,767		273,741		297,684		301,498		306,030
Income tax benefit profit		17,629		16,890	-		-		-		-		-		-
NET PROFIT		226,047		210,782	197,218		244,767		273,741		297,684		301,498		306,030

Source: Company data, KNU estimates

Appendix 2. Kernel Historical lookup

Figure 42: Kernel Business Lifecycle: from seed to mature

New segment?

Period

Source: Company data, KNU estimates

Figure 43. Kernel Holding S.A. M&A activity

Data	Company	Segment	Value, M USD US
Data	Company	Segment	Value, M USD US
23 January 2008	Zaliznichni slyakhi JS	Transshipment services	2.4
14 January 2010	Allseeds Group	Oil	42
15 February 2010	Allseeds Group	Oil	28
12 October 2010	Private farming	Farming	1.60
21 March 2011	Ukrros	Sugar	142
16 August 2011	Russkie Masla Group	Oil	63.8
15 September 2011	Black Sea Industries	OIl	140
02 April 2012	Farming companies (Khmelnytsk & Poltava regions)	Farming	149.4
02 October 2012	Grain Port/Taman	Transshipment services	265

Source: Bloomberg, Company data

Figure 44. Kernel Holding S.A. M&A activity – impact on share price

Grain Port/Taman

Russkie Masla Group Black Sea Industries

Ukrros

Private farming

Allseeds Group

Zaliznichni slyakhi JS

Source: WSE, Company data

Appendix 3. DCF Building

Figure 45: DCF calculation

FY2011

FY2012

FY2013E

FY2014F

FY2015F

FY2016F

FY2017F

FY2018F

Revenue from oil, cake and meal

1,309,975

1,394,618

1,674,501

1,793,138

1,940,833

2,086,969

2,183,043

2,280,185

Revenue from grain trade

571,143

598,691

772,923

1,092,869

1,188,004

1,330,498

1,363,658

1,413,915

Revenue from farming

4,309

25,814

21,739

28,954

33,923

37,360

39,471

40,892

Revenue from grain silo services

10,521

31,256

29,176

29,087

31,401

31,852

32,181

32,149

Revenue from transshipment services

3,170

8,012

31,243

38,373

47,297

47,414

47,535

47,157

Revenue from other activities

99,050

6,400

Sugar plants are sold

TOTAL REVENUE

1,899,118

2,157,441

2,535,981

2,982,421

3,241,458

3,534,093

3,665,888

3,814,298

COGS

1,358,548

1,536,068

1,798,844

2,120,329

2,306,864

2,517,592

2,612,499

2,719,370

Amortization and depreciation

30,885

62,374

91,263

101,622

107,049

120,719

125,341

130,160

Payroll and payroll-related costs

24,841

49,083

44,739

49,103

51,407

53,591

54,750

56,084

Rental expenses

7,513

21,842

47,835

52,486

55,009

57,308

58,563

59,936

Other operating costs

17,804

27,101

39,078

46,871

51,265

55,605

57,981

60,772

TOTAL COSTS

1,439,591

1,696,468

2,021,760

2,370,410

2,571,595

2,804,815

2,909,134

3,026,322

GROSS PROFIT

459,527

460,973

514,222

612,011

669,863

729,278

756,754

787,975

Other operating income

26,192

65,993

73,059

83,900

91,712

97,277

101,212

103,983

Operating expenses:

Distribution costs

-170,281

-200,368

-243,044

-283,454

-306,900

-333,388

-345,317

-358,751

General and administrative expenses

-38,170

-70,128

-73,634

-77,316

-81,182

-85,241

-89,503

-93,978

Operating profit

277,268

256,470

270,602

335,141

373,493

407,925

423,146

439,229

EBITDA

308,153

318,844

361,865

436,763

480,543

528,644

548,486

569,389

Finance cost

-42,452

-64,361

-73,384

-90,374

-99,752

-110,241

-121,647

-133,199

Foreign exchange (loss)/gain, net

1,723

5,269

Other expenses/income, net

-28,121

-3,486

Profit before income tax

208,418

193,892

197,218

244,767

273,741

297,684

301,498

306,030

tax rate

23%

21%

19%

16%

Profit before income tax from continuing operations

208,418

193,892

197,218

244,767

273,741

297,684

301,498

306,030

Tax at statutory tax rate

-47,936

-42,824

Deferred tax income

10,589

4,823

Tax effect of expenses, net

54,976

54,891

Tax income benefit

17,629

16,890

NET PROFIT

226,047

210,782

197,218

244,767

273,741

297,684

301,498

306,030

Interest paid(=Total Interest * (1-T))

31,834

46,607

55,630

72,620

81,998

92,487

103,893

115,445

NOPAT

257,881

257,389

252,848

317,387

355,739

390,171

405,392

421,475

Amortization

3,626

12,081

21,729

26,505

29,834

32,156

33,774

34,903

Depreciation

28,735

53,424

69,534

75,117

77,215

88,563

91,567

95,258

Total D&A

32,361

65,505

91,263

101,622

107,049

120,719

125,341

130,160

Increase in trade accounts receivable

-52,080

-9,281

-14,256

-30,089

-17,459

-19,723

-8,883

-10,003

Increase in prepayments and other current assets

18,925

1,181

-22,299

-19,364

-11,235

-12,693

-5,716

-6,437

Increase in restricted cash balance

1,720

5,716

Increase in taxes recoverable & prepaid

-1,371

-10,247

Increase in biological assets

3,292

11,585

-6,730

-25,719

-18,693

-13,391

-9,507

-6,710

Increase in inventories

-24,889

-206,817

-3,948

-79,719

-46,737

-53,185

-24,079

-27,203

Increase in trade accounts payable

4,830

-23,220

6,260

5,970

3,464

3,914

1,763

1,985

Increase in advances from customers and other current liabilities

-130,536

-11,051

14,934

32,361

18,777

21,212

9,554

10,758

Total change in WC

-180,109

-242,134

-26,038

-116,559

-71,883

-73,866

-36,868

-37,610

Tangible Assets

Additions, Tangible Assets

40,743

95,702

40,000

30,410

31,441

32,709

Acquisitions, Tangible Assets

112,407

186,316

159,266

107,318

107,927

96,621

99,898

103,925

Intangible Assets

Acquisitions (lease rights)

37,496

37,498

37,500

Total CapEx

190,646

319,516

236,766

184,818

185,427

164,531

168,839

174,134

FFCF		81,307	117,632	205,478	272,493	325,025	339,892
	Period	1	2	3	4	5	6
	Discount,ratio	0.8785	0.7717	0.6780	0.5956	0.5232	0.4597
PV FFCF		71,428	90,783	139,310	162,296	170,062	156,232
*USES OF FCF*
Interest payment		*55,630*	*72,620*	*81,998*	*92,487*	*103,893*	*115,445*
New Borrowings		*79,001*	*98,049*	*109,655*	*119,246*	*120,774*	*122,589*
FCFF for dividends and cash		104,679	143,061	233,135	299,252	341,906	347,036
Cash		45,513	69,631	151,013	209,947	251,456	255,227
Dividends		59,166	73,430	82,122	89,305	90,450	91,809
Dividends per share, USD		0.75	0.93	1.04	1.13	1.14	1.16
Dividends per share, PLN		2.36	2.93	3.28	3.57	3.61	3.67

Source: Company data, KNU estimates

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