Appendix 1. Financial statement

Figure 41: Kernel`s IFRS Financial, USD thousands

BALANCE SHEET

		FY2011		FY2012	FY2013E		FY2014F	FY2015F	FY2016F	FY2017F	FY2018F
ASSETS
	Cash & equivalents	115,897		82,529	128,042		197,673	348,686	558,632	810,089	1 065 315
	Trade accounts receivable, net		111,586	146,362	160,618		190,707	208,166	227,889	236,772	246 775
	Prepayments to suppliers & other current assets, net	81,334		90,335	112,634		131,997	143,233	155,926	161,642	168 079
	Taxes recoverable & prepaid, net	221,274		238,294	238,294		238,294	238,294	238,294	238,294	238 294
	Inventories	183,668		410,182	414,130		493,849	540,586	593,770	617,849	645 052
	Biological assets	95,961		153,338	160,068		185,787	204,480	217,871	227,378	234 087
*Total current assets*		*809,720*		*1,121,040*	*1,213,786*		*1,438,307*	*1,683,444*	*1,992,383*	*2,292,023*	*2,597,602*
	PP&E, net	502,752		728,371	858,102		930,303	1,001,015	1,039,483	1,079,256	1 120 632
	Intangible assets, net	65,563		91,087	106,858		117,854	125,519	130,863	134,589	137 186
	Goodwill	85,989		137,227	137,227		137,227	137,227	137,227	137,227	137 227
	Deffered tax assets	10,723		21,502	21,502		21,502	21,502	21,502	21,502	21 502
	Other non-current assets	97,862		19,805	19,805		19,805	19,805	19,805	19,805	19 805
*Total non-current assets*		*762 889*		*997,992*	*1,143,495*		*1,226,691*	*1,305,068*	*1,348,880*	*1,392,379*	*1,436,352*
TOTAL ASSETS		*1,572,609*		*2,119,032*	*2,357,280*		*2,664,998*	*2,988,512*	*3,341,263*	*3,684,402*	*4,033,954*

LIABILITIES
	Trade accounts payables	27,055		25,490	31,750		37,720	41,185	45,098	46,861	48 845
	Advances from customers and other current liabilities	102,029		157,338	172,272		204,633	223,410	244,622	254,176	264 934
	Short-term borrowings	234,514		167,348	296,298		333,938	376,033	421,810	468,174	515,234
	Current portion of long-term borrowings	31,392		98,622	-		-	-	-	-	-
*Total current liabilities*		*394 990*		*448,798*	*500,320*		*576,291*	*640,628*	*711,531*	*769,211*	*829,014*
	Long-term borrowings	152,684		414,238	462,912		523,320	590,880	664,349	738,759	814,287
	Obligation under finance lease	3,373		12,622	12,622		12,622	12,622	12,622	12,622	12,622
	Deferred tax liability	24,119		26,356	26,356		26,356	26,356	26,356	26,356	26,356
	Other non-current liabilities	153		6,317	6,317		6,317	6,317	6,317	6,317	6,317
*Total non-current liabilities*		*180,329*		*459,533*	*508,207*		*568,615*	*636,175*	*709,644*	*784,054*	*859,582*
SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY
	Share capital	1,945		2,104		2,104	2,104	2,104	2,104	2,104	2,104
	Share premium reserve	321,556		463,879		463,879	463,879	463,879	463,879	463,879	463,879
	Subscrived capital	137,354		-		-	-	-	-	-	-
	Additional paid-in capital	39,944		39,944		39,944	39,944	39,944	39,944	39,944	39,944
	Equity‑settled employee benefits reserve			1,211		1,211	1,211	1,211	1,211	1,211	1,211
	Revaluation reserve	15,049		15,049		15,049	15,049	15,049	15,049	15,049	15,049
	Translation reserve	-162,152		-167,082		-167,082	-167,082	-167,082	-167,082	-167,082	-167,082
	Retained earnings	617,878		824,578		962,631	1,133,968	1,325,587	1,533,965	1,745,014	1,959,235
*Shareholders' equity*		*971,574*		*1,179,683*		*1,317,736*	*1,489,073*	*1,680,692*	*1,889,070*	*2,100,119*	*2,314,340*
Minority interest		25,716		31,018		31,018	31,018	31,018	31,018	31,018	31,018
*Total shareholders' equity*		*997,290*		*1,210,701*		*1348754*	*1,520,091*	*1,711,710*	*1,920,088*	*2,131,137*	*2,345,358*
TOTAL LIABILITIES & EQUITY		*1,572,609*		*2,119,032*		*2357280*	*2,664,998*	*2,988,512*	*3,341,263*	*3,684,402*	*4,033,954*

INCOME STATEMENT

		FY2011		FY2012	FY2013E		FY2014F		FY2015F		FY2016F		FY2017F		FY2018F
Revenue		1,899,118		2,157,441	2,535,981	2,982,421		3,241,458		3,534093		3,665,888		3,814,298
Cost of sales		-1,439,591		-1,696,468	-2,021,760	-2,370,410		-2,571,595		-2,804,815		-2,909,134		-3,026,322
Gross profit		459,527		460,973	514,222	612,011		669,863		729,278		756,754		787,975
Other operating income		26,192		65,993	73,059	83,900		91,712		97,277		101,212		103,983
*Operating expenses:*
	Distribution,costs	-170,281		-200,368	-243,044		-283,454		-306,900		-333,388		-345,317		-358,751
	General,&administrative,expenses		-38,170	-70,128	-73,634		-77,316		-81,182		-85,241		-89,503		-93,978
*Total operating expenses*		*-208,451*		*-270,496*	*-316,679*		*-360,770*		*-388,082*		*-418,629*		*-434,821*		*-452,729*
Operating profit		277,268		256,470	270,602		335,141		373,493		407,925		423,146		439,229
	Finance,costs	-42,452		-64,361	-73,384		-90,374		-99,752		-110,241		-121,647		-133,199
	Foreign,exchange,gain,,net	1,723		5,269	-		-		-		-		-		-
	Other,expenses/income,,net	-28,121		-3,486	-		-		-		-		-		-
Profit before income tax		208,418		193,892	197,218		244,767		273,741		297,684		301,498		306,030
Income tax benefit profit		17,629		16,890	-		-		-		-		-		-
NET PROFIT		226,047		210,782	197,218		244,767		273,741		297,684		301,498		306,030

Source: Company data, KNU estimates

Appendix 2. Kernel Historical lookup

Figure 42: Kernel Business Lifecycle: from seed to mature

New segment?

Period

Source: Company data, KNU estimates

Figure 43. Kernel Holding S.A. M&A activity

Data	Company	Segment	Value, M USD US
Data	Company	Segment	Value, M USD US
23 January 2008	Zaliznichni slyakhi JS	Transshipment services	2.4
14 January 2010	Allseeds Group	Oil	42
15 February 2010	Allseeds Group	Oil	28
12 October 2010	Private farming	Farming	1.60
21 March 2011	Ukrros	Sugar	142
16 August 2011	Russkie Masla Group	Oil	63.8
15 September 2011	Black Sea Industries	OIl	140
02 April 2012	Farming companies (Khmelnytsk & Poltava regions)	Farming	149.4
02 October 2012	Grain Port/Taman	Transshipment services	265

Source: Bloomberg, Company data

Figure 44. Kernel Holding S.A. M&A activity – impact on share price

Grain Port/Taman

Russkie Masla Group Black Sea Industries

Ukrros

Private farming

Allseeds Group

Zaliznichni slyakhi JS

Source: WSE, Company data

Appendix 3. DCF Building

Figure 45: DCF calculation

	FY2011	FY2012	FY2013E	FY2014F	FY2015F	FY2016F	FY2017F	FY2018F
Revenue from oil, cake and meal	1,309,975	1,394,618	1,674,501	1,793,138	1,940,833	2,086,969	2,183,043	2,280,185
Revenue from grain trade	571,143	598,691	772,923	1,092,869	1,188,004	1,330,498	1,363,658	1,413,915
Revenue from farming	4,309	25,814	21,739	28,954	33,923	37,360	39,471	40,892
Revenue from grain silo services	10,521	31,256	29,176	29,087	31,401	31,852	32,181	32,149
Revenue from transshipment services	3,170	8,012	31,243	38,373	47,297	47,414	47,535	47,157
Revenue from other activities	-	99,050	6,400	Sugar plants are sold
TOTAL REVENUE	*1,899,118*	*2,157,441*	*2,535,981*	*2,982,421*	*3,241,458*	*3,534,093*	*3,665,888*	*3,814,298*
COGS	1,358,548	1,536,068	1,798,844	2,120,329	2,306,864	2,517,592	2,612,499	2,719,370
Amortization and depreciation	30,885	62,374	91,263	101,622	107,049	120,719	125,341	130,160
Payroll and payroll-related costs	24,841	49,083	44,739	49,103	51,407	53,591	54,750	56,084
Rental expenses	7,513	21,842	47,835	52,486	55,009	57,308	58,563	59,936
Other operating costs	17,804	27,101	39,078	46,871	51,265	55,605	57,981	60,772
TOTAL COSTS	*1,439,591*	*1,696,468*	*2,021,760*	*2,370,410*	*2,571,595*	*2,804,815*	*2,909,134*	*3,026,322*
GROSS PROFIT	459,527	460,973	514,222	612,011	669,863	729,278	756,754	787,975
Other operating income	26,192	65,993	73,059	83,900	91,712	97,277	101,212	103,983
Operating expenses:
Distribution costs	-170,281	-200,368	-243,044	-283,454	-306,900	-333,388	-345,317	-358,751
General and administrative expenses	-38,170	-70,128	-73,634	-77,316	-81,182	-85,241	-89,503	-93,978
Operating profit	277,268	256,470	270,602	335,141	373,493	407,925	423,146	439,229
EBITDA	308,153	318,844	361,865	436,763	480,543	528,644	548,486	569,389
Finance cost	-42,452	-64,361	-73,384	-90,374	-99,752	-110,241	-121,647	-133,199
Foreign exchange (loss)/gain, net	1,723	5,269	-	-	-	-	-	-
Other expenses/income, net	-28,121	-3,486	-	-	-	-	-	-
Profit before income tax	208,418	193,892	197,218	244,767	273,741	297,684	301,498	306,030
*tax rate*	23%	21%	19%	16%	16%	16%	16%	16%
Profit before income tax from continuing operations	208,418	193,892	197,218	244,767	273,741	297,684	301,498	306,030
Tax at statutory tax rate	-47,936	-42,824	-	-	-	-	-	-
Deferred tax income	10,589	4,823	-	-	-	-	-	-
Tax effect of expenses, net	54,976	54,891	-	-	-	-	-	-
Tax income benefit	*17,629*	*16,890*	-	-	-	-	-	-
NET PROFIT	226,047	210,782	197,218	244,767	273,741	297,684	301,498	306,030
Interest paid(=Total Interest * (1-T))	31,834	46,607	55,630	72,620	81,998	92,487	103,893	115,445
NOPAT	257,881	257,389	252,848	317,387	355,739	390,171	405,392	421,475
Amortization	3,626	12,081	21,729	26,505	29,834	32,156	33,774	34,903
Depreciation	28,735	53,424	69,534	75,117	77,215	88,563	91,567	95,258
Total D&A	*32,361*	*65,505*	*91,263*	*101,622*	*107,049*	*120,719*	*125,341*	*130,160*
Increase in trade accounts receivable	-52,080	-9,281	-14,256	-30,089	-17,459	-19,723	-8,883	-10,003
Increase in prepayments and other current assets	18,925	1,181	-22,299	-19,364	-11,235	-12,693	-5,716	-6,437
Increase in restricted cash balance	1,720	5,716	-	-	-	-	-	-
Increase in taxes recoverable & prepaid	-1,371	-10,247	-	-	-	-	-	-
Increase in biological assets	3,292	11,585	-6,730	-25,719	-18,693	-13,391	-9,507	-6,710
Increase in inventories	-24,889	-206,817	-3,948	-79,719	-46,737	-53,185	-24,079	-27,203
Increase in trade accounts payable	4,830	-23,220	6,260	5,970	3,464	3,914	1,763	1,985
Increase in advances from customers and other current liabilities	-130,536	-11,051	14,934	32,361	18,777	21,212	9,554	10,758
Total change in WC	*-180,109*	*-242,134*	*-26,038*	*-116,559*	*-71,883*	*-73,866*	*-36,868*	*-37,610*
*Tangible Assets*
Additions, Tangible Assets	40,743	95,702	40,000	40,000	40,000	30,410	31,441	32,709
Acquisitions, Tangible Assets	112,407	186,316	159,266	107,318	107,927	96,621	99,898	103,925
*Intangible Assets*
Acquisitions (lease rights)	37,496	37,498	37,500	37,500	37,500	37,500	37,500	37,500
Total CapEx	*190,646*	*319,516*	*236,766*	*184,818*	*185,427*	*164,531*	*168,839*	*174,134*

FFCF		81,307	117,632	205,478	272,493	325,025	339,892
	Period	1	2	3	4	5	6
	Discount,ratio	0.8785	0.7717	0.6780	0.5956	0.5232	0.4597
PV FFCF		71,428	90,783	139,310	162,296	170,062	156,232
*USES OF FCF*
Interest payment		*55,630*	*72,620*	*81,998*	*92,487*	*103,893*	*115,445*
New Borrowings		*79,001*	*98,049*	*109,655*	*119,246*	*120,774*	*122,589*
FCFF for dividends and cash		104,679	143,061	233,135	299,252	341,906	347,036
Cash		45,513	69,631	151,013	209,947	251,456	255,227
Dividends		59,166	73,430	82,122	89,305	90,450	91,809
Dividends per share, USD		0.75	0.93	1.04	1.13	1.14	1.16
Dividends per share, PLN		2.36	2.93	3.28	3.57	3.61	3.67

Source: Company data, KNU estimates

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