Rising geostrategic competition
Weakening of representative democracy
Rising pollution in the developing world
Increasing occurrence of severe weather events
Intensifying nationalism
Increasing water stress
Growing importance of health in the economy
At the top of this year’s list is worsening income inequality. As the world’s rich continue to accumulate wealth at record rates, the middle class is struggling. Today, the top 1% of the population receives a quarter of the income in the United States. Over the last 25 years, the average income of the top 0.1% has grown 20 times compared to that of the average citizen. Last year, this trend ranked second place in the Outlook; this year, it rises to the top.
Ongoing unemployment concerns, another recurring theme from the previous report, have risen to second place – this time in the form of ‘Persistent jobless growth’. Our economies may be growing, but the number of available jobs is largely failing to keep pace. For many, the situation is urgent and popular dissatisfaction at governmental response is reflected in two subsequent trends – ‘Lack of leadership’ and ‘The weakening of representative democracy’, both of which suggest a troubling disconnect between the public and the authorities that govern them.
Third on the list, rising security concerns around the world threaten the stability of states and their citizens. From renewed violence in Gaza to Russia’s intervention in Ukraine and the rise of Islamic State, geopolitical tensions have dominated headlines for much of 2016. Dedicated efforts are being taken to defuse these conflicts, yet it seems all but certain that two related trends, ‘Rising geostrategic competition’ and ‘Intensifying nationalism’, will continue to propel global concerns over the next 18 months.
This year, two major themes dominate this list: economic and environmental. These two areas of focus are inextricably linked. Long-term economic prosperity depends on environmental sustainability. Today, we see the consequences of short-term economic thinking and the reckless use of our planet’s resources: water disputes between neighbouring nations, more frequent and powerful extreme weather events brought on by our warming climate, an ongoing global deforestation crisis, a rapidly acidifying ocean, eroding topsoil and agricultural capacity, and an alarming biodiversity crisis unparalleled in modern history.
Now, more than ever before, environmental concerns are coming to the forefront of our global dialogue. We are at a critical fork in the road, a period of decision that will dictate the health and viability of our civilization for decades to come. In 2015, the nations of the world will gather in Paris to negotiate the next global climate agreement. The stakes could not be higher, but I have hope.
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To reiterate, the issues we must confront are imposing in their scale and expansive in their reach, but they must be faced with fortitude and with a cooperative, collaborative spirit. The pages that follow contain discussions that highlight the threats – and the opportunities – that dwell at the heart of our Top 10 trends, and explore some of the directions for progress. By acknowledging the issues we face today, we can begin to understand those that may yet lie ahead.
Globalisation and Higher Education Today, global wealth is concentrated less and less in factories and the land, and more and more in knowledge and skills. In the USA human capital is now estimated to be at least three times more important than physical capital. Participation in the rapidly changing knowledge society of the Twenty-first century demands new knowledge and skills and learning throughout life, and higher qualifications than ever before. As a result, the demand for higher education is growing constantly, higher education systems are under great strain to cope with dramatic increases in numbers without a commensurate increase in public funding. In many countries, expansion, both public and private, has been ‘unbridled, unplanned and often chaotic’. The results – deterioration in average quality, continuing inter-regional, inter-country and intra-country inequalities, and increased forprofit provision of higher education – could have serious consequences’ for developing countries and disadvantaged groups and the very concept of the ‘university.’ The World Conference on Higher Education (Paris, 1998) sought to ‘set the direction needed to prepare higher education for the tasks that await it in the Twenty-first century, and to help 158 Global trends in education mankind and the community of nations to strive out towards a better future, towards a world more just, more humane, more caring and more peaceful’ by establishing a few key principles and priorities for action. The Conference showed the need to strengthen the traditional research and specialised teaching functions of the university, while at the same time to insist on its intercultural and international mission of higher education in the Twenty-first century. Globalisation processes have led to an unprecedented demand for access to higher education while at the same time most governments are unwilling or unable to provide the necessary support to public institutions. Thus the dramatic growth in private and open higher education, the financial and identity crisis facing universities worldwide, and the intense and increasing competition for overseas students among the big league of internationalised universities and for adult learners from open and virtual corporate universities. In this context, I would hope that governments see beyond the immediate and understand that within the walls of the University there is a treasure within. Globalisation and Teacher Education The Delors report (UNESCO, 1996) sets out an agenda for the future which implies that significant changes are needed in pre-service teacher education programs if we are to select and prepare a new generation of teachers equipped with the knowledge, skills and values to help their culturally different and their socially disadvantaged students to learn, to resolve conflicts peacefully, to respect each other’s dignity and cultures, and to become socially responsible citizens. What emerges from the research is that teacher education which follows the ‘Do as I say, not do as I do model’ has to be replaced by one which sees learning to teach as a deeply personal activity in which includes activities designed to develop sensitivity to cultures, languages and lives of children coming from different social and cultural groups, and which provides constant and significant support, working with cohort groups, and a systematic long-term message which provides guidance and direction for personal development. The direction and culture of educational research must also change if we are to reform educational policies, established practice, curricula and teaching materials in ways which facilitate intercultural learning and ameliorate the problems created by disadvantage and discrimination in education and society. For example, there is a great deal that we do not know about the impact of international and government policies what is happening in our multicultural schools and universities; about the content and processes of education in traditional and contemporary cultural contexts; about the conditions under which intercultural learning and conflicts are resolved peacefully in different settings; about how best to select, prepare and support teachers and communities to cope with the realities and contradictions created by shifts in population, technology and policy; about the effectiveness of different approaches to combating violence, racism, substance abuse and suicide in our schools and universities. Another research agenda for the Twenty-first century relates to the impact of different types of student and faculty exchange programs, citizenship education, interactive multimedia packages and the web on intercultural sensitivity and the conditions under which various types of learning experiences transfer into acceptance of difference and tolerance in one’s own community, school or university.
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